Aluminum Foil Export Volume Dropped Significantly MoM, With Long-Term Overseas Fundamentals Providing Steady Support [SMM Analysis]

Published: Jan 26, 2025 20:11

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[SMM Analysis: Aluminum Foil Export Volume Drops Significantly MoM, Long-Term Overseas Demand Remains Stable] With the cancellation of export tax rebates and the looming threat of increased tariffs in some countries, relevant enterprises generally believe that aluminum foil export volumes are unlikely to see significant growth in the coming months. Fortunately, aluminum foil is primarily used in food packaging, and the dietary habits of European and American countries make household foil and other aluminum foil products essential in these regions. Therefore, while there is no significant expectation for a rise in aluminum foil exports, there remains a stable overseas demand base, and the likelihood of a sustained sharp decline is expected to be low.

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SMM January 26, 2025:

In December 2024, China's aluminum foil exports reached 1.153 million mt, down 28% MoM, up 10% YoY. Cumulative aluminum foil exports in 2024 totaled 1.5558 million mt, up 19% YoY.

By country, December aluminum foil exports were mainly destined for Thailand and India, with South Korea, the UAE, Mexico, and Japan also ranking high. The combined export volume to these six countries in December was 42,900 mt, accounting for approximately 37.2% of total aluminum foil exports.

By province, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan were the main contributors to aluminum foil exports in December. The top five aluminum foil exporting provinces collectively exported 87,900 mt in December, representing about 76.24% of total aluminum foil exports.

According to SMM, with the cancellation of export tax rebates and the potential implementation of increased taxation policies in some countries, related enterprises generally believe that aluminum foil export volumes are unlikely to see significant growth in the coming months. Fortunately, aluminum foil is primarily used in food packaging, and the dietary habits of European and American countries make household foil and other aluminum foil products essential in these regions. Therefore, while there is no strong expectation for a significant increase in aluminum foil exports, the sector still has a stable overseas demand base, making a sharp decline less likely.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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